Context for 10X
Created by David Dornseifer
Questions
What general challenges do you see in the future?
What might be the biggest disruption in general?
What might be the biggest disruption for our business?
Gartner's 2015 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies
“The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year.
Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term,
the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years.
”
Moors Law V1.0 1965
Fixed it to double every two years in 1975
Not just computational power
Storage
Peter Diamandis (Singularity University)
Way to think about exponential technologies and how the affect our world
Want you to see the process from a slightly different perspective
Digitized: Becomes exponentially empowered, starts to grow at an exponential rate
Digitized: Pretty much everything is digital today, bio, finance ...
Deceptive: Exponential growth unnoticed (truegerisch) - kodak 0.001 / 0.002 -- 10
Disruptive: Innovation that creates a new market and disrupts the old - netflix vs. dvd Verleih
Dematerialize: Vanishing of goods / Apps (Navi, Music, Camera), Cloud Computing
Demonetize: Taking the money out of the equation (Craigslist, skype, amazon, Google research)
Democratize: Costs drop and are available to everyone (New marketplaces, explode )
Democratize: the world of electronic trading (platforms)
Enabler for a global, digital disruption
Computational Power
Global Connectivity
Free, global Learning
Cheap, free Infrastructure
Open Source
Computational Power
Moors law does not just apply for CPUs
"Intel's new non-volatile storage chip is 1.000 times faster than flash memory" (Intel )
Global Connectivity
Google delivers 'internet' whith baloons (Google )
Facebook with solar powered planes (Facebook )
Bandwidth of at least 1MBit
3.5b until 2020 / 7b until 2025
Learning of the Future
Free education is available for everyone (everywhere)
LearnTech
Coursera (free MOOCs)
Udacity (comercial)
Learning a language, job, basic education
Coursera
MIT / Stanford ...
On avg. 43,000 students
6.5% til the end
~10% interact with course material til end
Cheap/free Cloud Solutions
Cloud computing prices convert to zero (WSJ )
Cheap and powerfull embedded devices available
Application containers counter lock in
Old hardware with open source software
40% Price decline for a lithium-ion battery pack in an electrical vehicle since 2009
Apple is an exception - price discrimination
Amount of materials available?
IC
Raspberry / Andruino / Mobiles get cheaper and cheaper
Open Source
Companies contribute actively
Easy entry for Startups
Open Source Hardware (OCP )
Plug and Play for Startups
Professional Service, Certificates, Software as a Service
No competition via closed source
Global Access
Consequence of the global, digital disruption
Workforce
New potential workforce in the emerging markets
Innovation pressure from startups
Trillions of dollars into the global economy
Transparency
Decentralized Internet Connections
Learning / Using all available resources
Decentralized and Digitized
Alle nur erdenklichen Informationen werden digital sein
New Opportunities
The enablers of the digital age
Context of this popular technologies/inventions
Virtual Reality
Virtual Reality layer
New forms of collaboration
3D Printing
A printer in every home
Plans, recipes are -able
Algorithm based design
Health care
Health data digitalized
3D printed pill available
Downloadable recipes
Transplants
Crypto Currency
Decentralized, global economy requires decentralized currency
Demand for a decentralized currency
"The digitized becomes exponentially empowered"
The digitized becomes exponentially empowered
Machine Learning Age started in 2006 when CPUs where fast enough
Derive valuable Insights
Speech recognition / face recognition (Google )
Real time speech translation (Microsoft )
Mining health care data to make people become 130 years old (Human Longevity )
Mining business data and automate systems
Enabled by exponential tech, memory, computation
Execution on GPUs (Mass parallel)
Primarily Artificial Neural Networks
Training of ANN (Back propagation) to fit
Deep Learning - automatic feature detection
Microsoft showed a real time translator from Chinese to English
Machine Learning in Business
ML Startups focusing on Sales, Marketing, Finance (Techcrunch )
Automated CRM
Workday Machine Learning Ventures
Machine Learning in Science
Bloomberg about Workday Machine Learning Ventures
“In the new world it's not the big fish which eats the small fish,
it's the fast fish which eats the slow fish.”
Quote by Klaus Schwab
Almost no obstacles for startups today
Race for digitalization
Trillion Dollar Opportunity
“Every Job is Software-enabled, Every Industry is Digitized”
Folge der Digitalisierung
Naming by Techcrunch
Airware (Drone Operating System)
Skycatch (Autonomous drone based construction support)
tidemark (Financial Planning and Analytics)
zuora (Subscription management)
Business Models in Context of 6D's
Business Models
Business Models are adapted to fit into exponential model
Data Driven
Democratization
Data Driven (dig for valuable insights hidden in data)
Participative Networked Platforms (support democratization)
Companies start as service provider and become data driven
Support democratization by platform
Democratization not just a cheap platform, also integration into expensive systems
Data Driven
Google becomes an insurance company
Apple becomes a bank
Netflix will earn an academy award for their next movie
Google to Alphabet
Google becomes a mayor player in the smart city business, like
traffic routing
Uber is aiming for self driving cars?
Uber will be part of the transportation business
Apple becomes a Bank?
Netflix disrupts cable tv (house of cards)
Big Data to get next tv show to match the interest of the people
Democratization as a Business Model
Quantiacs (Democratize the Quant Industry)
BigML (Democratize Machine Learning)
Thinknum (Democratize Financial Analysis)
Give access to systems/markets/knowledge
Support democratization process
Get access to the data
Conclusion
As soon as information are digitized their value hops onto the exponential grow curve
Companies become more and more data driven
Everybody will be turned into an information worker
Facing big security and corporate espionage risks
Questions
What general challenges do you see in the future?
What might be the biggest disruption in general?
What might be the biggest disruption for our business?
Thanks for your attention
Questions, discussions?